MX2: Can king Cairoli take a third crown?
AFTER his devastating domination last summer Toni Cairoli is tipped by the pundits to repeat the feat in his final year in MX2 – but I am not so sure.
The Sicilian, champion in 2005 and 2007, was the fastest in 2006 too, but he didn’t take gold, and I don’t think he can be so overwhelmingly faster than his rivals this summer.
OK, it is claimed he is preparing for his switch to MX1 in 2009, but the 22-year-old has not raced his GP bike all year and no amount of practice can take the place of race training. Toni wasted the winter racing the ludicrous European SX series, and he may not have expected to sniff Philippaerts on a 450, but regular defeats by Alex Salvini are not the signs of a confident champion.
And add to that two hungry rivals who look stronger, much stronger, than ‘Cri’ Pourcel did in 2006!
Tyla Rattray was the crown prince at the end of 2004, and, while it would be unfair to say he has spent three seasons as clown prince, the South African made tactical errors galore in his preparation.
Youthful recklessness cost him dear in 2005 and 2006, and his bullish search for consistency last summer came at the expense of speed.
I had written the 22-year-old off, until I saw him race this year, but I see a new, controlled ‘Styla’, and one who has refound those two-seconds a lap he was missing last season. You won’t see him chasing round like a loon in free practice this year, and I would bet on him restricting his fast qualifying laps to those necessary to claim a decent gate slot. But when the race starts, he can turn up the wick when he needs to. Danger man number one!
And danger man number two is, of course, Tommy Searle.
The 18-year-old had established himself as undisputed number one contender by the end of 2007, and he continues to get faster, more experienced and more mature every time he takes to the track.
There will be no repeats of Ireland, and Tommy will not fold up and go into a sulk like Pourcel did last summer when Cairoli opens up his box of tricks. It will not be easy, but ‘Tommy Gun’ is ready to rattle the Italian and leave for America with the number one plate in his pocket.
And what of the rest?
Yamaha has already started planning for the future with factory contracts for Nico Aubin and Davide Guarneri at Ricci, while De Carli is still hoping to bring Matteo Bonini on, but the latter is already out with a broken shoulder and both he and Guarneri have struggled to overcome Manuel Monni in Italy this year.
Meanwhile, Aubin has, like Cairoli, been racing a 450, and struggles out of the pack anyway on the few occasions when he doesn’t gate. The French youngster (19) can be there at times, but not often enough.
The KTM armada is completed by the Portuguese duo of Rui Goncalves, third man on the factory team and, like Aubin, lined up for a title shot in 2009, and Joaquim Rodrigues, back from America because he couldn’t get a ride, at Sarholz, a couple of useful Belgians in Jeremy Van Horebeek and Joel Roelants... and Shaun Simpson!
The 20-year-old Scot already showed 12-months ago that he can run with the best, but a stottering tuned Kwacker and injuries, usually caused by those power blips at the wrong time, cost him the high ranking he deserved.
Shaun can run with the best, and a roll through the early races could see Mattighofen’s interest increased from its current role through its UK subsidiary. The Simpsons, the last of the gritty old school working class heroes, deserve everything they can get. The top three are too strong to leave many scraps over, but Shaun is there with Goncalves and Aubin in the hunt for podiums.
And there are more.
Suzuki’s decision to officially enter MX2 came a little late in the day last summer to be fully prepared, but Pascal Leuret at Swift has the experience to deliver from fast starts as the project gains momentum. The priority for the 26-year-old Frenchman has to be the Maxxis series this year, but his employers also expect podium finishes. Xavier Boog, on the other RMZ250WS at Inotec in Germany, has looked un-impressive so far this year, but he advanced last year almost unnoticed and should not be underestimated.
Honda again effectively sit out the class, Matti Seistola at SRS and Marvin Musquin at NGS leading its hopes, but Kawasaki, champions in 2006, must again be a major player with Molson holding all the aces.
Gareth Swanepoel ended 2007 as top gun in green, but the 23-year-old South African has made his usual slow start to the new campaign. That didn’t stop him making the podium at Valkenswaard last year however, but ‘Swanny’ will want to keep the form rolling more often this summer.
Newcomer Gautier Paulin, the 2007 Euro champ, has Jacky Vimond to guide him and an extrovert style derived from his BMX roots, but he has sat out much of the early weeks of the year after crashing at Valence. His job is to be ready to race for wins in 2009 anyway.
And then there is ‘Swordy’ – Stephen Sword!
One of the most popular riders in the paddock – the welcome back he got from the continental press at the official press conference last summer was stunning – the mild-mannered Scot is now 28 but, to quote trainer and mentor David Thorpe: “Stephen’s window of opportunity is still open.” He looks sharp, he can dig as deep as anyone, and if anyone can worry the big three, it will be him!
Nearly done now, but what of the other Brits?
The MX2 Maxxis is again so strong that anyone who can break top ten, can race in the points at the GPs and Martin Barr’s progress since he got back on a 250 has been continual. He’s not a ‘Crockstar’, but Ulster’s best, still only 20, can race top ten.
Injury has already interfered with Jason Dougan’s preparation and eliminated Jake Nicholls from the early GPs, but each has a team internal target to aim for on their return to known capabilities.
At 28, Carl Nunn has enough experience to know what a factory bike is worth, but MVRD should provide the former British champ with a bike capable of breaking top ten, while Elliott Banks-Browne, despite an early season wrist injury, showed at Donington the sort of race speed over the distance which has been lacking since his youth days and at 18 should add the maturity to become a GP regular.
So there you have it, those are the names to watch over the next six months. And for those of you who don’t get to venture further than Mallory – but that is compulsory! – can, of course, follow the fortunes of the best riders in the world through the pages of T+MX.
And, even if you see the action first hand, we will be keeping you posted on the stories behind the headlines and results.
Enjoy what will hopefully be a long, hot torrid summer!
